Sunday, February 27, 2011

Q4 GDP - and an unsolved question in fluid dynamics

Very busy week and great progress on the scientific financial stability work.

Today managed to get the 50 most recent JCP Questions and Responses online -using a blog format because it's easier and easier to search. It's here if you'd like to look.

The ONS revised Q4 "growth" figures (minus 0.5%) were fractionally downwards, when I was expecting a big increase. But I note that at current market prices the growth was plus 0.4%.  The relationship between this and the "chained volume measure" is complex. On average over the last 8 quarters GDP at current market prices has been 0.5% higher than GDP at chained volume (roughly corresponding to 2% inflation) but last Qtr it was apparently 1%.

Manufacturing growth continues to storm (+1.1% in Q4) and I'm still very dubious about the supposed 2.5% fall in construction - though this has been revised upwards from the frankly incredible earlier figure of 3.3%. This may also be behind the 2.5% fall in Gross Fixed Capital Formation.  And although the trade deficit widened this was driven mainly by imports of aircraft to beat a change in the VAT rules on 1 Jan.

On a completely different note I was struck by this report in Nature showing that it was still unclear whether the motions in a typical astrophysical disk are stable or unstable. This could have a major influence on the rates of star formation - and of Habitable Earth-Like Planets.

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