Saturday, June 25, 2016

On Brexit, Boris and co must take responsibilty and should then trust the people on the specifics

From Der Spiegel Online
So the vote was narrowly Brexit, with London and Scotland voting Remain and the rest of the country for Leave - based on high turnout of C2DE voters who apparently believed that the "£350M per week" we sent to the EU could be spent on "our NHS" and removing VAT on petrol, and that the warnings of dire economic consequences were "scaremongering".

The day afterwards Sterling and the stockmarkets had plunged - recovering somewhat so that Sterling was "only" down 6% against the $. The FTSE 100 was only down 3% at the close and the FTSE 250, which has more UK exposure, 6%. This means we are now the 6th largest economy in the world - we were the 5th before Brexit - but the real problems are only just beginning. The Bank of England had to make £250bn of liquidity available to the financial system.  Exactly as forecast, the SNP are now suggested a second Independence Referendum for Scotland.  We will be very lucky to avoid a recession.

The following points seem pretty clear to me:
  1. Boris and co must take full responsibility for the situation they have created. It may be that they have indeed got the skills required to lead the country to a glorious future. But we need to find out as soon as possible.
  2. They must negotiate the specifics of our new relationship with the EU, with the First Ministers of Scotland and Northern Ireland. This should include what would happen if Scotland and Northern Ireland Remain in the EU and England & Wales Leave.
  3. They should then trust the people in a referendum on the specifics where the question is whether the voters Endorse the Brexit Deal or Reject it and vote to remain in the EU under the existing terms.  It should be clear that, if Scotland and Northern Ireland Reject the Brexit Deal, they will Remain and it will be the end of the United Kingdom.  
My guess is that under these conditions there would be an 80% vote in favour of Remain. But we shall see.

1 comment:

Crude said...

and that the warnings of dire economic consequences were "scaremongering".

There are dire economic consequences for being a Christian in most of the west as well.

Perhaps people have other priorities than pure economic optimums - or, for that matter, fulfilling other people's dreams of a massive left-wing superstate.